Sunday - February 11, 2007

Autocratic Russia

 Or Back to the Future

Back, what now seems like centuries ago, when I an undergraduate taking courses on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, several themes were burned into my young, impressionable mind which still stay with me to this day.  

Politically speaking, the Russians, due to their history, whether the threat was Mongol, Muslim, French, or Asian, view foreigners suspiciously.  Russian, as a result of its size, historically, has always required a strong government to bring the country together.  Russia, typically goes through a predictable political cycle.  Russia and her subjects, long oppressed, revolt against stifling political control.  Unfortunately for the Russians, revolts never seem to materialize into anything constructive and things tend to fall into degrees of chaos.  The masses wish for stability and that opens the way once again for authoritarian government.

That little history lesson was brought to mind by Vladimir Putin's little outburst this Saturday in Munich.  The Russians have found they have lost a great deal when they cast off the oppression of the Communist Party some 17 years ago.  Democracy hasn't really taken hold, the economy outside of energy is abysmal, the Russian population itself is declining, and the empire has collapsed.  (Take a look at this map.  You can readily see the territory lost from the height of the Soviet Union.  Also telling is the estimated population decline by the year 2050).  

The Russians look around and don't like what they see.  Freedom has gained them nothing and now the cycle of Russian politics is once again tilting towards authoritarian leadership.  Always insecure about their borders, Putin, from the Russian perspective, points out perceived threats:

Among them were the expansion of NATO into the Baltics and the perception in Russia that the West has supported groups that have toppled other governments in Moscow’s former sphere of influence.

“The process of NATO expansion has nothing to do with modernization of the alliance,” Mr. Putin said. “We have the right to ask, ‘Against whom is this expansion directed?’ ” 

Of course, the enemy is the United States, who it sees as encroaching on its traditional spheres of influence in Eastern Europe, Muslim Asia, and Slavic areas.

The world, he said, is now unipolar: “One single center of power. One single center of force. One single center of decision making. This is the world of one master, one sovereign.”

“Primarily the United States has overstepped its national borders, and in every area,” said Mr. Putin, who increasingly has tried to re-establish Russia’s once broad Soviet-era influence, using Russia’s natural resources as leverage and defending nations at odds with the United States, including Iran.

Of course some of Putin's bitterness is the simple realization that Russia is a third rate power at best.  Even though it fields probably the greatest nuclear arsenal on earth, it lost its empire, has suffered a population decline, has seen its industry collapse, and finds it has little influence on world events.  More importantly though, Putin's internal policies in addition to his stated foreign objectives probably signal a return to increased American and Russian tensions.  The only difference between the height of the Cold War and now, is that Russia is a mere shadow of its former powerful self.

Trackposted to Conservative Cat, Conservative Thoughts, Right Voices, and Maggie's Notebook, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.